This is the way most business plans work.
Everyone comes up with assumptions & predictions that sound logical.
Followed by all these impressive forecasts predicting 12 months into the future with fancy spreadsheets.
Their rational assumptions fail to work.
The problem is they’ve already committed $50,000 into an advertising campaign by that stage.
Created an expensive product.
… and unnecessarily lost a LOT of money.
Here’s the bottom line when it comes to marketing:
People and markets are so complex it’s beyond the capacity of our minds to comprehend all the variables.
So don’t try to.
Test small first.
Prove your assumptions are correct.
Then make your forecasts – based on a degree of fact, instead of pure fantasy.